The German government decided to carefully mitigate the restrictive measures of public life. Few reliefs will be implemented as of next week, larger reliefs will follow from May 4th. In implementing these measures, federal states place different focus points, in line with regional peculiarities. But despite the tendency for a more liberal interpretation of federal decisions in the North Rhine-Westphalia country and for a more restrictive course in Bavaria, common in Germany is the continuation of the broader restriction of public and economic life.
The reason is that neither the haste nor the persistent efforts to predict the long-term future at all costs help in this epidemic. The main orientation for the German government are the conclusions of scientists, which are mainly based on mathematical models. The main institute of epidemiology in Germany, the Robert-Koch Institute, recently updated its 2012 study on the Sars virus. It describes possible scenarios for the course of the Covid-19 epidemic.
Models and scenarios for the virus in Germany
In this unfamiliar situation in Germany, even the central government is based on models to make decisions. Chancellor Angela Merkel explained to the media that the space the government has to ease the measures is still small. A very small increase in infections can also lead the German health system to a capacity limit. Currently, the rate of virus reproduction, ie the number of people infected with 1 person, is approximately 1 person (today 0.7).
If this rate rises to 1.1, all resuscitation beds in Germany will be occupied in October. If among five people, one person begins to infect not 1 other but 2 others, while others infect only 1 other person, then if the reproduction rate is no longer 1, but 1.2, the capacity of the German health system reached in July. If we have a larger increase in the number, to 1.3, the capacities reach the limit in June.
Also known is the hypothetical scenario described in a 2012 updated study by the Robert-Koch Institute in Germany. If confirmed, several waves of the Corona virus epidemic are expected. The second wave of infections is forecast in the fall of this year. The third in the spring of next year and the fourth in the fall of 2021. Only then will the complete infection of the population be achieved, ie 60-70 percent of it will be infected. So there will be antibodies against the Corona virus in humans. With the advent of the Corona virus vaccine, the effects on humans will be minimized. Clinical trials of the vaccine will begin in Germany in the coming weeks.
Germany ready for more foreign patients
For the future, in times of this pandemic, in Germany it is decided every two weeks. On April 30, it will be discussed again in Berlin whether the restrictions will be further relaxed. This Friday (April 17), the Minister of Health of Germany, Jens Spahn stated that the spread of the virus in Germany has become manageable.
This allows Germany to better assist other countries in dealing with the virus. Minister Spahn has offered other countries talks on the parameters of treatment of other foreign patients in Germany. So far, 220 foreign patients with Corona virus have come to Germany for treatment in resuscitation: over 130 patients from France, 50 from Italy and 50 from the Netherlands.
Admiration from European partners for Germany
Germany is seen with admiration for managing this crisis by most European countries. The British organization London Deep Knowledge Group even categorized Germany as "the safest and most stable country in Europe, and the second in the world", based on crisis management. The first country in the world is Israel, which has extensive experience with crises. Then come Switzerland and Austria. The US comes in 70th place. This categorization of the British center is quoted today by Der Spiegel magazine.
The world's assessment of Germany in this pandemic is based on several factors:
First, at the level of prior preparation and equipment of the German health system. However, the high number of intensive care beds before the epidemic, 28,000 beds, currently increased to 40,000. 30,000 of these beds have breathing apparatus. Since 10,000 intensive care beds are still empty, Germany now makes them available to patients from other countries, maintaining a reserve of 25-30 percent.
Second, an important contributing factor to this virus crisis is the large number of hospitals in Germany. 1400 hospitals are spread all over Germany. In the current situation this turned out to be favorable for testing and treatment. The authorities' refusal to halve the number of hospitals to 600, as proposed by the Bertelsmann Foundation, to further increase the quality of service has now proved lucky.
Third, Germany's success in this crisis is based on the population's mass testing strategy and the subsequent isolation of those infected from the age group at risk. 160,000 tests per week were performed since the beginning of the epidemic in Germany, 350,000 tests per week are performed today (capacity is for 700,000 tests per week, Minister Spahn declared on Friday). For every 100,000 inhabitants, Germany tests over 2079 people. The US is testing e.g. 851 people.
These measures also reflect the low number of deaths from the Corona virus in Germany so far: just over 3,000 people have died - out of a total of about 134,000 infected. 81,000 people have since recovered.
Notably, in this pandemic, chance also plays a role in every country. The first infected people in this pandemic in Germany were mostly younger people, who cope with the virus more easily. Their ejaculation after testing by the older age groups, most at risk, curbed the death toll.
Predictions for vaccine release vary: most optimists see it coming out in the fall, others after a year and a half, as much as is usually needed for vaccines. Until then we will continue to participate in daily life. But with the "right thoughts" in mind: keeping a distance of 1.5 meters from others; by avoiding unnecessary public activities; wearing protective masks in shops and on public transport, which the German government now strongly recommends; and by washing and disinfecting hands and surfaces.
"The situation is as it is," is a typical expression of the Cologne area in Germany. We must consciously accept the current situation radically, and accept both uncertainty and uncertainty as normal. However, humanity is programmed to survive - the evidence is all of us. / DW
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